The freight market is no longer stabilizing. It has turned, and the data is unambiguous.

 

Linehaul rates are up approximately 30% year over year excluding fuel, confirming a genuine supply-demand imbalance rather than a diesel illusion. Tender rejections have held above 10% for two consecutive months. Traffix projects freight costs 10 to 20% above 2025 across all scenarios, including the conservative one.

 

The forcing function is supply, not demand. Capacity has exited through carrier attrition, CDL enforcement, and three years of sub-replacement equipment orders. The fleet that remains is older, tighter, and in many cases carrying a maintenance backlog that registered capacity numbers do not reflect.

 

For shippers, routing guides built for 2024 are failing in 2026. Contracted carrier relationships are the differentiator right now.

 

For carriers, this is the window. Use it.