Let me tell you what I’m seeing on my desk this week, because I think it’s the thing your procurement team should be looking at too.
The volume numbers say the freight market is fine. Outbound tender volumes are tracking with last year. Manufacturing is showing signs of life. By any traditional read of the macro data, this should not be a stressful month. And yet I’m watching shipper after shipper come back to us this quarter with routing guides that aren’t covering, with first-tender acceptance numbers sliding from the low 90s into the mid 80s, with spot exposure that’s running 25% or more above what their procurement assumed when they wrote the bid.
Something is off. The volume data and the acceptance data are telling opposite stories, and I want to walk you through what I think is actually happening.
For the past five years, “shipper of choice” lived primarily in conference presentations and the marketing decks of third-party logistics firms.
It was a phrase that played well in a slide and read well in a vendor pitch, sitting somewhere between brand reputation and supplier relationship management for most of the soft market from 2022 through most of 2025.
That treatment made sense at the time. Carriers needed loads. They accepted detention, dwell, difficult facilities, late payments, and inefficient communication because the alternative was sitting empty with a payment due on the truck.
The underlying math is no longer what it was.
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